Rostislav Ishchenko, President of the Center of systemic analysis and forecasting
Crimea lives in the past. It is not Ukraine at all, but not yet Russia. Rare news from the Peninsula isn’t completed by the mention of the “Russian spring” (local interpretation sounds as “Crimean spring”), “4th defense of Sevastopol”, etc. Despite the fact that the local (Crimean and Sevastopol) authorities are vested with administrative and economic functions only and the fight of programs and concepts should be based around practical issues, any public conflict boils down to asking “who is more valuable for the mother-history ” – who stood at the origins of resistance, and who joined along the way, who was spotted in cooperation with the “Maidan” parties, who competed from the early 90s, and who didn’t show any activity.
Generally, the political summons of Crimea is anyhow connected with the Ukrainian past of Peninsula.
There’s a rational explanation. Still, the a narrow necks of land have signs not only of state borders but also the front line. If Ukraine is unable to threaten the Peninsula by military force, then finely shitting, making different kind of blockade it doesn’t get tired. Even the recognition of the Crimea by the international community as Russian territory de facto still needs to fasten de jure. Further the refugees from the civil war zone in the Donbas, as well as immigrants from mainland Ukraine (political and economic). Further reduced, but not dried out completely, the flow of tourists, recent citizens, many of whom openly support the Kiev regime. Many, many fibers still link the Crimea with his Ukrainian past.
At the Peninsula are fixed problems not typical for other regions of the Russian Federation
Due to this at the Peninsula are fixed problems not typical for other regions of the Russian Federation. For example, not only in the case when the official is guilty of corruption, but when someone is just dissatisfied with his job (whether reasonably or not) citizens start to appeal directly to Moscow or to the President, accusing the supreme power that it “didn’t put things right”, didn’t disperse the “incorrect”, former Ukrainian officials, and did not send the “correct” ones to replace them (or appointed from the heroes of the “Crimean spring”).
Russian political parties are accused that working in the Crimea they are not familiar with local realities and are engaged to their ranks the former Maidan activists, collaborators, supporters of Ukrainization, etc.
Thankfully the objective economic difficulties are still more or less adequately perceived and the fact that Crimea does not become a mix between Nice and Luxembourg at fingertips. Probably it matters the realization that in five kilometers to the North of Armyansk is stated a zone of humanitarian catastrophe, claims to return the Peninsula. The feeling of danger emanating from the Kiev regime and the comparing of living conditions at North and South stimulate a conscientious attitude to temporary problems. Moreover, the care of the Federal centre about the regioe (from military bases and construction of the energy bridge to roads and touristic infrastructure) is more than noticeable.
Crimean groupage is one of the main elements of the military infrastructure in the South checking Turkish ambitions
However, the focus of the centre creates another psychological problem. Сountrywide enthusiasm in Russia in 2014 about the return of the Crimea kept the Peninsula in the top of news for a long time. Then Ukraine bothered with troops massed on the narrow necks of land and different real (food and energy) and fake (sea and Internet) blockades. Finally, fleet based in the Sevastopol plays an active role in ensuring Russian operations in Syria, and the Crimean groupage is one of the main elements of the military infrastructure in the South checking Turkish ambitions.
As a result, the authorities and the politically active part of population of the Peninsula the reality was perceived somewhat distorted. As the child coming to visit who is lauded, patted or given a chocolate by adults praise, begins to think that happiness will be eternal, so in the Crimea natural situational splash of attention to the region, which launched the return of primordial Russian lands began to perceive subconsciously as a entity. This entity harks back to the “Crimean spring” and is connected with the Ukrainian past of the Crimea
Not every hero who stood with the gun at Perekop, can manage community facilities
The fact that not every hero who stood with the gun at Perekop can manage community facilities, education or health system is difficult to accept. The fact that Russian parties works with people experienced in party and political work (though not all of them have a clean sheet) seems to be unfair. Fact that Crimea piecemeal becomes a normal Russian region, the same as others, doesn’t provoke a formal objections, but makes people sighing for the flesh-pots of the days of the “Crimean spring”, when all 145 million people in Russia (and 45 million at Ukraine also) fell asleep and woke up with thoughts about the Peninsula.
Exactly the same feelings were experienced by the soldiers of the Great Patriotic war, returning after the victorious euphoria in may 1945, when every soldier was a hero and a welcome guest, to the gray routine. As well a pop star, used to the attention of millions, can’t leave the stage. It is human nature wishing feast, enjoying the feast and hardly part with with the feast.
But, unfortunately, in a festive format is not only hard to solve everyday problems, but is impossible to scratch an itch of justice, which seems less feasible as the euphoria of the “Crimean spring” remains in the past.
As we go forward, Crimea becomes an ordinary region of the Russian Federation
As we go forward, Crimea becomes an ordinary region of the Russian Federation and demands will be made the same as to others regions. The amount of assistance provided from the Federal budget and the special attention from the Central government will gradually come to naught fade away. The more so the region has opportunities to turn from a recipient to a budget contributor.
Eventually the sea is also in Sochi. The fleet is in Vladivostok, Murmansk and Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad region is cut off from the country completely and exists in much more difficult strategic situation than Crimea. Air bases on New Lands and the naval base on the Northern sea route are opened up by the same citizens of Russia and in much more complex natural and climatic conditions, than in the Crimea.
Regions propose their politicians. Many of them became known at federal level. Becomes Ministers. And none of them is patronized from Moscow.