Andrey Manoylo. Photo: https://news-front.info
For year many Western political leaders openly consider Russia to be one of the main threats to global security. Hope for adequate perception appeared during the presidential race in the United States when then a candidate for the post of head of country, Donald Trump spoke about the normalization of relations with the Kremlin and the recognition of the status of the Crimean Peninsula. However, after the American magnate has had his will, settling in the Oval Office of the White House, his Pro-Russian ardency has almost expired. Professor of the Department of Russian politics of the faculty of political science of Moscow state University. M. V. Lomonosov Andrei Manoylo told to “the Mirror of Crimea,” how the situation will develop.
— At what phase are Russian-American relations now?
— They are now at the bottom of the pit, where they have moved during the presidency of Barack Obama. The coming to power of Donald Trump not affected they fundamentally. His conflicting statements expressed the members of his team does not allow to speak about normalization and thaw. So, the situation may turn different. However there is still hope that Trump’s words about the necessity of normalization of relations with Russia are not just empty words, and Trump will begin to build relations with Russia square one. Only time will show as it will be actually.
Photo: http://www.peoples.ru Donald Trump
— Does the increase of the defence budget of the United States threatens the normalization of relations with Russia?
— Generally, no, it doesn’t. The increase of the defence budget could mean that under the guise of the necessity of militarization in the face of new Chinese threats Trump will try square accounts with owners of enterprises of the military-industrial complex who had supported him. In gratitude for the support he will give them a new, profitable orders, and his friends from the defense industry could get a lot of money.
— Does Trump have any our country strategy?
Yes, Trump has a strategy. Despite his behavior he is the person of the system. As for our country, his primary goal is to split the emergent Russian-Chinese Alliance. In this case no one could prevent to aggravate relations with China to the edge of the possible. Trump knows that, China can be “eaten” quickly without Russia, as well as Russia without China. So he probes the position of the Russian side and doesn’t hasten to cancel the Obama’s orders about sanctions. It is not clear now if Trump has any more long-term Russia strategy.
— Many experts believe that it is impossible to build relationships with Trump in some other format besides trade. Do you agree with this opinion?
— Trump is businessman. He examines policy as the business sector and the decision of any political problems he sees in the form of closing numerous transactions. Russian-American relations for Trump are also a business project which can be removed from the crisis only by organizing a big deal with Russia. He will aspire this deal. As for the exchange, in the debate on the terms of the deal will appear the Donbass and the recognition of the Crimea. And sanctions, and much more. Not the fact that all “wishlist” of the American administration will be satisfied, because the deal is mutually beneficial exchange. Today, when the true parameters of this deal are not known yet, it can be assumed that most of all Tramp will be interested not in the Donbass and the Crimea, but in the ability to persuade Russia to a partial nuclear disarmament. Is doubtful that Russia will agree.
— What White House strategy of the Kremlin you predict?
— The Kremlin’s strategy is to establish steady state personal contact with Trump and work together to beat all ill-wishers and enemies. By the way, the information about the possible place and date of the meeting has already appeared.
— How soon in your opinion the question of Crimea with the new American leadership can be resolved?
— Donald Trump has said yet that the United States can recognize the Russian Crimea. This means that he will tend to this result, but will proceed with caution, preparing positions in the Congress and American public opinion. Therefore the US will recognize the Crimea only in the final of relations normalization with Russia after the partial lifting of sanctions. It will happen by the end of the first term of Trump, not before. In addition, the midterm elections to Congress in 2018 can hinder the recognition. The balance of supporters and opponents of Trump in Congress would change (and possibly not in favor of the Republican President Trump).
Photo: http://oboi-colibri.ru Vladimir Putin
— According to some representatives of the new U.S. administration, Russia has no rights to the Peninsula. But the USA never recognized the Baltic States as Soviet, and that was not advisable for us.
— Is irrelevant now if Russia had the right to the Peninsula or not: Crimea became part of Russia voluntarily, through the secession from Ukraine and independence. Russia has only acceded to the request of the people of Crimea. Russia had not taken Crimea, appealing to his rights — no, Russia agreed to take the Crimea and its people into the Russian state. As for the procedure of the Crimea withdraw from Ukraine and coming to Russia, in international legal terms the procedure was the same as West recognized international precedent with the Falkland Islands. If the occurrence of the Falklands part of the United Kingdom is lawfully it means that the entry of the Crimea into the Russian Federation is legally triple.
— What in your opinion will be the role of the Ukrainian issue?
— I think that the Ukrainian crisis will go to nought. USA will give it to Europe as a typical toxic asset. And wash hands after, saying that the restoration of Ukraine is a European item.
— Can theoretically occur compromise, suffice the Ukrainian people? Recently one of the candidates for the post of U.S. Ambassador to Russia Thomas Graham proposed a variant of the legitimation of the Russian status of Crimea compensation to Kiev. There is a supposition that Ukrainian oligarchs can agree…
— Maybe. Ukranian people should follow the residents of Crimea. They should pay Graham a hundred hryvna in denominated yuan.